Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb3d7…61b8
other · 389 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$274 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$299 · open +$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$221
Realized−$299
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses215 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions20
Markets (closed)369 / 389
History coverage619d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%
Chart Positions 20 History 369 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$140
14 days−$140
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $41 $49 +$8 (+20%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 80¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan finish last in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 77¢ 96¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+24%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 92¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 70¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+91%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 60¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 53¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +113%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$9 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $23 −$10 -46%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +27%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 14 $91 −$9 -10%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Jun 14 $28 −$12 -43%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +63%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -67%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +250%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$5 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $3 +$2 +59%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $6 +$3 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -24%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +171%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 +$2 +30%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 28 $25 +$25 +102%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $22 +$19 +86%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$60 +291%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $16 +$14 +87%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14 −$12 -86%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$9 -85%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$10 -49%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? May 24 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $4 +$6 +152%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $17 +$58 +344%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $94 +$58 +61%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $156 +$34 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$775
world 28% +$71
politics 16% −$1,076
economics 10% −$111
sports 4% +$8
tech 1% +$28
culture 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$28
finance 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $46 9h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 10h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 11h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 11h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 17h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 72¢ $4 18h
Will Haiti finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 77¢ $1 23h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 28h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 28h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 36h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 33¢ $1 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 36h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 83¢ $5 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 24¢ $1 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 63¢ $4 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 37h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -13.2% -21.5% 40% 37% -28.7%
≤30d 50 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 48% -0.0%
≤90d 96 +1.2% -8.4% 48% 40% -14.4%
all 369 +6.9% -3.2% 58% 36% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 36% -10.7%
10% -12.5% 25% -19.2%
15% -21.0% 17% -27.0%
20% -28.7% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.55 · official $220.55 (match) · 3212 history records