Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3d8…4f9c crypto 1127 markets active 3d ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+1%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate74%831W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day61.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$211
14 days−$231
30 days−$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$246
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -37.5% -43.4% 42% 27% -63.9%
≤30d 857 +1.4% -8.2% 74% 60% -11.6%
≤90d 1127 +2.0% -7.7% 74% 58% -11.4%
all 1127 +2.0% -7.7% 74% 58% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 58% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 33% -19.8%
15% -24.6% 19% -27.6%
20% -32.0% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses831 / 296
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1127 / 1127
History coverage36d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day61.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1127 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$6 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$15 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$10 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2960 history records