Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:36:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb3db…a85b other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate26%16W / 46L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
other 16% −$10
politics 10% −$7
sports 2% +$93
crypto 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 +4.7% -5.3% 26% 17% -8.0%
all 62 +3.9% -6.0% 26% 15% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 15% -9.2%
10% -15.0% 15% -17.9%
15% -23.2% 13% -25.9%
20% -30.7% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses16 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage551d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $195 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $150 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $165 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $329 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 27 $158 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $329 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $163 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $163 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $166 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $167 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $11 +$10 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $24 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $14 +$15 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $15 +$15 +104%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Apr 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 01 $51 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Sharks Apr 01 $31 +$30 +96%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 30 $26 +$24 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 3d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $20 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 16d
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 23d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 23d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 24d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 25d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 29d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $152 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $32.63 (match) · 228 history records