Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:36:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3db…fc23 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$4
other 27% $0
politics 18% +$2
sports 6% +$12
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% −$18
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 21 +59.2% +44.0% 19% 5% -9.9%
≤90d 67 +18.0% +6.7% 33% 4% -9.6%
all 76 +16.8% +5.6% 37% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.6% 5% -9.8%
10% -4.5% 5% -18.4%
15% -13.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -22.2% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage486d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $106 +$1 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $80 −$2 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $119 −$3 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $54 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $58 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $141 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $7 $0 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $88 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $14 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $39 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $39 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $9 $0 -1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $127 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $41 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $15 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $53 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $44 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $41 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $12 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.97 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records