Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3e2…68c2 world 88 markets active 8h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$3
politics 22% −$2
other 20% −$11
sports 9% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 33 +2.4% -7.3% 39% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 78 -0.9% -10.3% 32% 4% -9.4%
all 88 -4.6% -13.6% 32% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.9% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage526d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 24 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $52 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $58 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $95 −$2 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 +$1 +47%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 +$5 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $40 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $51 −$4 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $25 +$4 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $12 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $3 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $85 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 65¢ $42 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $14 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 64¢ $24 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $36 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $15 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $52 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $51 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $16 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $8 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 32¢ $16 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $16 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records