Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb3e4…d6b2 sports 1501 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21,300 (+31%) realized +$21,228 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%824W / 651L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$249est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,664
sports 48% +$1,172
world 1% +$242
crypto 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +2.6% -7.2% 43% 40% -13.6%
≤30d 287 +4.6% -5.4% 52% 50% -10.8%
≤90d 1293 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 52% -12.3%
all 1475 +4.9% -5.1% 56% 54% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 54% -4.1%
10% -14.2% 52% -13.3%
15% -22.5% 47% -21.7%
20% -30.1% 38% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$37 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,430
Realized+$21,228
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses824 / 651
Est. fees paid−$249
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1475 / 1501
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 1475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 78¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? No 58¢ 74¢ $104 $132 +$28 (+27%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 71¢ 72¢ $128 $129 +$1 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 75¢ 76¢ $64 $65 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 54¢ $45 $65 +$20 (+44%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 98¢ $49 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 94¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 92¢ $38 $56 +$17 (+45%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $54 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 92¢ $37 $55 +$18 (+48%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $55 $53 −$2 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 84¢ $52 $51 −$2 (-3%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 72¢ $51 $43 −$8 (-16%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 69¢ $47 $42 −$6 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 52¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 40¢ $28 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 38¢ $18 $22 +$4 (+25%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-5%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 30¢ $35 $18 −$17 (-48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 26¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 +$92 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 +$90 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $44 +$17 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $71 +$83 +117%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $150 −$149 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $190 −$10 -5%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $67 +$113 +170%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $86 +$94 +108%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $147 +$33 +23%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $133 +$47 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $68 +$112 +163%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $173 +$7 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $180 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 +$163 +982%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $121 +$59 +49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $43 +$49 +113%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $43 +$137 +317%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $143 −$30 -21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $140 −$139 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $145 +$35 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $88 +$33 +37%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $81 +$99 +124%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $131 +$49 +37%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $140 +$40 +28%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $151 +$29 +19%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $148 +$32 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $77 +$103 +134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 +$149 +488%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $76 +$104 +138%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $74 +$106 +144%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $129 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $90 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $88 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $79 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $150 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $20 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 12h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 12h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $13 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $90 19h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $31 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 58¢ $106 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $140 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $90 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $99 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $30 22h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $6 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $6 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $3 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 75¢ $19 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $55 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $45 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $67 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $77 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $59 44h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $106 44h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $98 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $16 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $8 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,429.73 · official $1,428.80 (match) · 3500 history records