Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:47:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb3e6…6423 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$327 (+6%) realized +$241 · open +$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$10
14 days−$195
30 days−$679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$640
other 27% −$148
politics 15% −$1
weather 12% −$185
sports 5% +$75
tech 2% −$121
crypto 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% -0.5%
≤30d 19 -47.3% -52.3% 21% 21% -48.5%
≤90d 44 -20.5% -28.1% 45% 39% -6.7%
all 44 -20.5% -28.1% 45% 39% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 39% -6.7%
10% -35.0% 27% -15.7%
15% -41.3% 14% -23.8%
20% -47.0% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$44 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized+$241
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage91d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $100 $204 +$104 (+104%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 58¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? No 62¢ 28¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-54%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 18 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $52 −$6 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $208 −$200 -96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $102 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? Jun 01 $42 −$29 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 +$96 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23? May 23 $97 −$92 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? May 22 $51 +$40 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5? May 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 4? May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Romania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $201 +$29 +14%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $101 +$33 +32%
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 13 $103 −$7 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $300 +$91 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 13 $300 +$52 +17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $201 +$54 +27%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 06 $104 −$33 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 5? May 04 $191 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $103 +$23 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 2, 2026? May 03 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 28, 2026? May 01 $111 −$27 -24%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $201 +$21 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 29? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 29? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $200 −$11 -6%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 29 $280 −$7 -3%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 28 $200 +$37 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $100 +$36 +36%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $300 +$424 +142%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $300 +$130 +43%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $200 +$21 +10%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $170 +$42 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 62¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $66 19h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $51 28h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $47 4d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 9d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $47 9d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $52 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 10d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $53 10d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $52 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $208 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $96 17d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $102 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 26d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 26d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 26d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $100 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $100 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? SELL No 82¢ $95 26d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23? BUY Yes 40¢ $44 27d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 27d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? SELL Yes 83¢ $92 27d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 86¢ $100 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $100 29d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 48¢ $71 35d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 35d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $201 36d
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.45 · official $334.45 (match) · 214 history records