Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3e9…6764 crypto 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,645 (+7%) realized +$1,645 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate71%132W / 54L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$541
7 days+$1,486
14 days+$1,490
30 days+$1,526
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,516
other 0% −$4
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -3.9% -13.0% 85% 17% -3.4%
≤30d 156 +0.1% -9.5% 74% 26% -3.4%
≤90d 186 -3.1% -12.4% 71% 27% -3.4%
all 186 -3.1% -12.4% 71% 27% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 27% -3.4%
10% -20.7% 22% -12.7%
15% -28.4% 17% -21.1%
20% -35.4% 13% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,645
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses132 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage42d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $503 +$39 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $506 +$96 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $512 +$250 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $501 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $507 +$117 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $235 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $501 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $501 +$15 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $214 −$214 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $727 +$817 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $501 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $506 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $512 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $501 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $507 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $235 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $501 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $214 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 419 history records