Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb3f1…bdc6 crypto 173 markets active 41d ago coverage 108d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 107d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,601 (+3%) realized +$32,594 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%112W / 69L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,033per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 108d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$1,288
crypto 27% −$3,484
world 20% +$2,292
other 12% +$322
sports 2% +$29
economics 1% +$146
tech 0% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +166.4% +141.0% 12% 12% -76.5%
≤30d 8 +166.4% +141.0% 12% 12% -76.5%
≤90d 87 +39.8% +26.5% 63% 38% -8.8%
all 181 +11.5% +0.9% 62% 29% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.9% 29% -9.5%
10% -8.8% 25% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -17.6% 23% -26.0%
20% -25.7% 18% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,940) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$292 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$32,594
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses112 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)181 / 173
History coverage108d ⚠
Avg bet$6,033
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 85¢ $5 $12 +$7 (+154%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (Decemb Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jun 29 $84 −$58 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$14 +2202%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$90 -9028%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during t Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will muddyrc win the Genesis Cup? Jun 29 $0 −$49 -16206%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,005 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $306,311 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 21 $2,347 +$2 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 17 $200 +$2 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? May 16 $318 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 15 $943 +$62 +7%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 15 $4,438 +$50 +1%
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? May 15 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 08 $488 +$98 +20%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 08 $1,968 +$578 +29%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 08 $13,972 +$28 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 01 $1,834 +$5 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $54,890 +$110 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $1,698 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 30 $44 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 30 $887 +$153 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 30 $1,044 +$659 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 30 $6,533 +$89 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 30 $3 +$87 +3016%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 30 $897 +$470 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 30 $614 +$290 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 30 $492 +$297 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 30 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 30 $34 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 30 $159 −$39 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 27 $634 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9PM ET Apr 26 $150 +$116 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 26 $65 −$64 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 26 $111 −$89 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 26 $111 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 26 $204 +$139 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 26 $407 +$204 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 26 $939 −$40 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 26 $1,263 +$736 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 26 $551 −$70 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 26 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 26 $160 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 26 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 25 $255 +$200 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 25 $1,174 +$126 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,347 41d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $304 44d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 44d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 44d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 44d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,499 44d
Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week? BUY No 100¢ $4,995 46d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,519 56d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $5,467 56d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $318 56d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $6,986 56d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 77¢ $4 58d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 76¢ $1,964 58d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 58d
Kash Patel out by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $263 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $789 59d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4,990 59d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9,980 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $196 59d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 59d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9,980 59d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14,970 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $21 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $23 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.12 · official $12.12 (match) · 3500 history records