Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3f2…cf88 other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$102 (-17%) realized −$135 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$87
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$87
sports 44% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 50% +23.9%
≤30d 15 -19.7% -27.4% 47% 40% -17.4%
≤90d 15 -19.7% -27.4% 47% 40% -17.4%
all 15 -19.7% -27.4% 47% 40% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 40% -17.4%
10% -34.3% 40% -25.3%
15% -40.7% 33% -32.5%
20% -46.5% 20% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$28 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage10d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 35¢ 64¢ $40 $73 +$33 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $81 +$34 +42%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$28 +135%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 +$54 +106%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $76 −$26 -34%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 17 $22 +$33 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$81 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$49 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$11 -98%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $74 +$29 +40%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $115 15m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $41 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 69¢ $81 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2h
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $20 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $104 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $20 46h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $20 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL Yes 39¢ $48 3d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $20 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will BUY 9¢ $5 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 22¢ $5 5d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 100¢ $35 7d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 55¢ $19 7d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 30¢ $22 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 54¢ $82 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 34¢ $10 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $40 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $12 8d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 48¢ $10 9d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Galions 100¢ $100 9d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 71¢ $74 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 3¢ $5 9d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.14 · official $73.14 (match) · 36 history records