Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3f6…b228 sports 400 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-8%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%162W / 238L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$56
14 days+$13
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$281
crypto 16% +$42
other 3% −$39
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 40% +0.5%
≤30d 161 -14.0% -22.2% 40% 39% -13.9%
≤90d 400 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 40% -16.6%
all 400 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 40% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 40% -16.6%
10% -30.0% 39% -24.6%
15% -36.8% 38% -31.8%
20% -43.0% 33% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses162 / 238
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)400 / 400
History coverage61d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 400 Trades
no open positions (154 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $5 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $5 +$5 +91%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $41 +$41 +100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 +$3 +11%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $6 −$2 -35%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 −$2 -47%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 24 $3 +$3 +97%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$16 +78%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$7 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $48 −$27 -56%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $15 −$7 -44%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $10 +$8 +75%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $3 +$3 +85%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $14 −$6 -45%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner Jun 22 $41 +$26 +62%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 -22%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +67%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $13 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $15 +$12 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $5 $0 -10%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 +$2 +64%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$3 +93%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -50%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$1 -54%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $3 +$3 +107%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 13m
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner SELL OG 27¢ $2 49m
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY OG 48¢ $3 52m
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Sharks 99¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Sharks 99¢ $66 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner SELL Sharks 71¢ $16 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 38¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 38¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 43¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 59¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner SELL ECHO 100¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 78¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 19¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner SELL Inner Circle Esports 35¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner SELL FOKUS 31¢ $2 3h
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs ECHO (+1.5) SELL FOKUS 21¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 26¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 58¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 62¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 65¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 63¢ $5 5h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? SELL Yes $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 22¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 37¢ $5 6h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) SELL Walczaki 100¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner SELL Walczaki 100¢ $36 9h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 50¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1048 history records