Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3f7…9ccd weather 284 markets active 16h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-15%) realized −$52 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%101W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -12.4% -20.7% 46% 46% -17.6%
≤30d 159 -21.7% -29.1% 47% 44% -28.9%
≤90d 283 -18.4% -26.2% 36% 34% -25.7%
all 283 -18.4% -26.2% 36% 34% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 34% -25.7%
10% -33.2% 24% -32.8%
15% -39.7% 16% -39.3%
20% -45.6% 12% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses101 / 182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)283 / 284
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$4 +285%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 32h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 46h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.48 · official $1.48 (match) · 520 history records