Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb3f8…d0a0 sports 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$280 (-18%) realized −$281 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$286
other 25% −$21
sports 22% −$70
politics 20% +$102
crypto 6% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 20 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 55% +2.6%
all 43 -15.4% -23.5% 53% 49% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 49% -27.3%
10% -30.8% 37% -34.3%
15% -37.5% 23% -40.6%
20% -43.6% 16% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$281
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage159d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? May 17 $10 −$9 -93%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -86%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $31 +$19 +61%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $49 +$19 +39%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $18 −$12 -65%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $59 −$25 -42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 $0 +18%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? May 02 $10 +$5 +52%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $9 +$3 +38%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? May 02 $2 +$5 +237%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $15 −$15 -99%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Paula Badosa Apr 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Apr 14 $14 +$1 +8%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 12 $312 +$102 +33%
Cherbourg: Jurij Rodionov vs Filippo Romano Mar 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Antalya 3: Anhelina Kalinina vs Katarzyna Kawa Mar 14 $1 $0 +29%
Cap Cana: Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong Mar 14 $1 +$1 +61%
Cherbourg: Remy Bertola vs Borna Gojo Mar 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Mar 07 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? Mar 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $7 +$2 +29%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 26 $180 −$180 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $71 +$6 +9%
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Arthur Fils Feb 22 $157 +$24 +15%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Pegul Feb 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 28 Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $10 +$7 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on January 27 Jan 27 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 12PM ET Jan 23 $20 +$23 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 24? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 22 Jan 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $4 $0 -2%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $30 +$23 +77%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 17 $5 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 1h
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 35d
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $11 35d
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 35d
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 35d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes $0 35d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 35d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 35d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes $0 35d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 35d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 35d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $15 35d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $15 35d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud BUY Jannik Sinner 86¢ $10 35d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 35d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $31 35d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 35d
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $59 36d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $49 36d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 50d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 50d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $15 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 50d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 84¢ $2 50d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 50d
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk SELL Marta Kostyuk 100¢ $12 50d
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Marta Kostyuk 72¢ $9 50d
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.57 · official $150.57 (match) · 78 history records