Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3f9…781b other 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,116 (-3%) realized −$1,113 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%33W / 153L
Whale WR28%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$171per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$77
14 days−$67
30 days−$732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% −$787
politics 5% +$9
other 5% −$208
crypto 2% −$68
economics 1% −$14
finance 1% −$61
culture 0% −$16
tech 0% +$14
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.8% -24.8% 14% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 36 -19.8% -27.4% 17% 6% -12.1%
≤90d 77 -29.8% -36.4% 14% 5% -12.7%
all 186 -26.6% -33.6% 18% 12% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 12% -12.8%
10% -39.9% 8% -21.2%
15% -45.7% 7% -28.8%
20% -51.1% 5% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 28% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1,113
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses33 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)28%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)186 / 192
History coverage261d
Avg bet$171
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+50%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $3,315 −$50 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 18 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 18 $160 −$5 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $16 $0 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $826 −$16 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$3 -8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $720 −$9 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $719 −$15 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $860 +$36 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $666 −$7 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,500 +$15 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 06 $22 −$2 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $652 −$3 -0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 01 $40 −$5 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $1,054 −$10 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $9,034 −$143 -2%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 30 $2 +$7 +287%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,221 −$7 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $629 +$76 +12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $442 −$440 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $565 −$37 -7%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 24 $94 −$50 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $182 −$10 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 23 $1,709 −$19 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $181 −$4 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $668 −$16 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $762 −$6 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 20 $429 −$2 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $1,128 +$17 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $812 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $343 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 16 $420 −$29 -7%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 14 $606 −$40 -7%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $456 −$11 -2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $304 −$112 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $375 −$14 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $396 −$5 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 08 $134 −$4 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 07 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $637 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $630 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $150 33h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 75¢ $150 36h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 78¢ $155 36h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 80¢ $160 37h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 38h
Will Sarah Elfreth be the Democratic nominee for MD-03? BUY No 3¢ $2 43h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $628 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $72 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $632 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 56¢ $448 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 57¢ $456 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 3d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 48¢ $290 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 50¢ $300 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.82 · official $5.83 (match) · 933 history records