Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb3fb…67d2 crypto 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (263 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day262.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (263 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 41% -14.2%
≤30d 75 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 41% -14.2%
≤90d 75 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 41% -14.2%
all 75 +4.0% -5.9% 47% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover262.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 41% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 35% -22.4%
15% -23.1% 25% -29.9%
20% -30.7% 19% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day262.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 46¢ 100¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+115%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$7 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$9 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$6 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$4 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.95 · official $16.02 (match) · 587 history records