Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb407…252c crypto 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,653 (-13%) realized −$4,324 · open −$329
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%74W / 63L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$283
7 days−$283
14 days−$619
30 days−$766
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$1,663
world 25% −$1,400
finance 14% −$2,112
other 5% +$602
politics 1% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -54.7% -59.0% 40% 20% -30.0%
≤30d 19 -33.7% -40.0% 47% 42% -24.2%
≤90d 82 -54.0% -58.3% 34% 27% -39.2%
all 137 -14.9% -23.0% 54% 48% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 48% -21.2%
10% -30.4% 36% -28.7%
15% -37.1% 31% -35.6%
20% -43.3% 23% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$167 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$1,471
Realized−$4,324
Unrealized−$329
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses74 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)137 / 140
History coverage107d
Avg bet$259
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 73¢ 84¢ $850 $986 +$136 (+16%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 53¢ 34¢ $750 $478 −$272 (-36%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 37¢ 1¢ $200 $7 −$193 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$35 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$96 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $456 +$108 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $271 −$265 -98%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 10 $500 +$254 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $433 +$189 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $205 +$173 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $782 −$775 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $281 +$125 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $203 +$57 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $128 +$72 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $207 +$43 +21%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $200 −$190 -95%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $200 +$103 +51%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $100 +$65 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 26 $500 +$69 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $500 +$11 +2%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? Apr 12 $500 +$229 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 09 $20 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 09 $100 +$64 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 09 $340 +$44 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 09 $500 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 08 $100 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 08 $200 +$54 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 08 $350 +$55 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $120 +$56 +47%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 07 $700 −$310 -44%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $750 −$750 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 07 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 07 $2,120 −$2,120 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Apr 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 07 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 07 $30 +$17 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 07 $70 +$9 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? Mar 30 $700 +$155 +22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $1,200 +$138 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 28 $750 +$72 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 28 $1,000 +$67 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $24 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $563 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,470.95 · official $1,470.95 (match) · 435 history records