Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb407…c1be other 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$603 (-9%) realized −$609 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days−$1,394
14 days−$664
30 days−$664
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$848
crypto 25% +$244
world 1% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +17.0% +5.8% 33% 33% -50.0%
≤30d 61 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
≤90d 61 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
all 61 -6.8% -15.7% 33% 33% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 33% -17.8%
10% -23.7% 33% -25.7%
15% -31.1% 30% -32.9%
20% -37.9% 26% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$60 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 41
Open positions8
Markets (closed)61 / 70
History coverage9d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $160 $156 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$72 +72%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $111 +$27 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,328 −$1,310 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +68%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$80 +40%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$35 -70%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -58%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$14 +113%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$57 +57%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$119 +775%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -42%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$66 +1290%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$30 -95%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -86%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +137%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $149 −$138 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $393 −$147 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $207 +$178 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $68 −$67 -99%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $161 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $173 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 15h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 15h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,318 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 26¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.09 · official $469.99 (match) · 144 history records