Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb408…fcb1 world 241 markets active 6h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$205 (+4%) realized +$136 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%108W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$117
14 days+$174
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$1
other 9% −$18
sports 7% +$44
crypto 3% +$68
politics 3% +$6
finance 1% −$2
economics 1% +$1
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 54% +6.3%
≤30d 51 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 45% +2.3%
≤90d 179 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 32% -9.2%
all 198 -3.1% -12.3% 55% 34% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -8.8%
10% -20.7% 21% -17.5%
15% -28.4% 16% -25.5%
20% -35.4% 13% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized+$136
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses108 / 90
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions43
Markets (closed)198 / 241
History coverage133d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $109 $185 +$76 (+70%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 86¢ $166 $154 −$12 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $71 $80 +$8 (+12%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 73¢ 88¢ $55 $66 +$11 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 89¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 86¢ 92¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $68 $44 −$24 (-35%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 86¢ 95¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 77¢ 56¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 56¢ 90¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+62%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+17%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 64¢ 92¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+43%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 65¢ 98¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+51%)
NATO dissolves before 2027? No 94¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -85%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $232 +$152 +66%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $77 +$13 +16%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $18 +$30 +168%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 −$26 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $19 +$21 +114%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +89%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $9 +$6 +70%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +113%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +133%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$9 -40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -89%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $45 +$3 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 11 $92 −$47 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +22%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -23%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $84 +$57 +68%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $8 +$7 +97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $70 −$9 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $51 −$1 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $37 +$9 +25%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $52 +$2 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $19 +$5 +25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $36 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $136 −$5 -4%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 26 $2 −$2 -88%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $114 −$2 -2%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $4 +$3 +56%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 22 $2 +$3 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 26¢ $1 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $49 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 19h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $25 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 30h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $210 30h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 40h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $13 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $64 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 69¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.65 · official $986.72 (match) · 1239 history records