Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B4 0xb40a…0d28 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-4%) realized −$72 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,063now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$0
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$3
world 8% −$53
other 8% −$3
tech 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 25% -28.2%
≤90d 5 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 20% -31.1%
all 5 -22.2% -29.6% 40% 20% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 20% -31.1%
10% -36.3% 20% -37.7%
15% -42.5% 20% -43.7%
20% -48.1% 0% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,063
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage62d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $1,050 $1,063 +$13 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $105 −$3 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $47 +$2 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $100 −$56 -56%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,069 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $102 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $105 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $47 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 28¢ $44 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $100 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 70¢ $7 61d
LoL: RED Canids vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 37¢ $11 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,063.46 · official $1,063.46 (match) · 14 history records