Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:53:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb40a…b109 other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+8%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%10W / 26L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$47
sports 25% +$83
crypto 7% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -23.6% -30.8% 28% 28% +0.8%
≤30d 36 -23.6% -30.8% 28% 28% +0.8%
≤90d 36 -23.6% -30.8% 28% 28% +0.8%
all 36 -23.6% -30.8% 28% 28% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.8% 28% +0.8%
10% -37.5% 28% -8.9%
15% -43.5% 25% -17.7%
20% -49.0% 25% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$5 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses10 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 42
History coverage6d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$63 +307%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $45 +$29 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $13 +$7 +57%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $10 +$28 +276%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$2 -8%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$7 +346%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$17 +342%
Curaçao to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $4 +$4 +97%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 −$12 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 28m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 38m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 56¢ $75 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $78 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 38h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 38h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 38h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 39h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 39h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots BUY No 1¢ $1 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.24 · official $67.24 (match) · 74 history records