Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:05:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb40d…1474 politics 157 markets active 3d ago coverage 711d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$234 · open +$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate58%81W / 59L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$28
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 65% −$36
other 18% +$222
world 11% +$166
finance 3% +$70
tech 1% −$255
crypto 1% −$129
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +12.8% +2.0% 75% 33% -7.5%
≤30d 14 +12.2% +1.5% 71% 36% -7.5%
≤90d 17 +12.2% +1.5% 76% 41% -5.6%
all 140 -11.4% -19.9% 58% 27% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 27% -9.5%
10% -27.5% 11% -18.2%
15% -34.5% 4% -26.1%
20% -41.0% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$48 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

711d coverage
Net worth$2,555
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses81 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions17
Markets (closed)140 / 157
History coverage711d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $1,250 $1,430 +$180 (+14%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 84¢ 85¢ $256 $259 +$3 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $248 $253 +$5 (+2%)
Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? No 89¢ 90¢ $135 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $88 $93 +$5 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 72¢ 62¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 84¢ 96¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 94¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 64¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? Jun 26 $5 +$12 +235%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $400 +$13 +3%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 25 $40 +$5 +12%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? Jun 25 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 25 $32 −$22 -68%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 25 $16 +$2 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 25 $43 +$6 +14%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $40 +$3 +8%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 25 $20 −$16 -81%
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $260 +$6 +2%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 23 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Jun 17 $220 −$4 -2%
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +19%
Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican preside Apr 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Tim Walz charged by March 31, 2026? Apr 17 $60 +$3 +5%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 17 $243 +$36 +15%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $13 −$3 -25%
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? Jan 17 $143 +$39 +27%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jan 01 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the Jan 01 $40 +$291 +729%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Jan 01 $180 −$4 -2%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Jan 01 $54 +$3 +5%
Will Kamala Harris announce Presidential run by December 31? Jan 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Obama divorce in 2025? Jan 01 $99 +$11 +11%
Modi out in 2025? Jan 01 $104 +$6 +5%
Zohran Mamdani arrested before September? Jan 01 $140 +$5 +3%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Jan 01 $140 +$16 +11%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $434 +$50 +12%
US congress stock trading ban in 2025? Jan 01 $534 +$52 +10%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory in 2025? Nov 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025? Nov 13 $673 −$240 -36%
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? Oct 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Trump jail Elon Musk? Oct 15 $206 +$5 +2%
Will Trump end DOGE in 2025? Aug 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025? Jul 22 $140 $0 -0%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? Jul 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August? Jul 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%? Jul 17 $151 +$59 +39%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August? Jul 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% before August? Jul 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% before August? Jul 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jul 16 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2025? Jul 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Jul 10 $657 −$414 -63%
Gaza mass population relocation in 2025? Jul 09 $29 −$7 -25%
Will Elon call Trump a "pedophile" by Friday? Jul 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrew Yang join the America Party? Jul 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mark Cuban join the America Party? Jul 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jul 09 $6 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 83¢ $312 3d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 82¢ $554 3d
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $313 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $140 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 3d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? SELL No 90¢ $44 3d
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? SELL No 45¢ $18 3d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 3d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $251 3d
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY No 84¢ $100 3d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $46 3d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 80¢ $43 3d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? BUY Yes 82¢ $206 3d
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $213 3d
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 5d
Mamdani team sweeps primaries? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 5d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? BUY No 81¢ $40 5d
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 11d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 11d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $10 11d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 11d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY Yes 9¢ $10 11d
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 11d
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 11d
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL No 91¢ $60 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $43 44d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY No 41¢ $16 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,555.08 · official $2,555.08 (match) · 761 history records