Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B4 0xb40e…7cc9 weather 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3166 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$168,497 (+421%) realized +$166,527 · open +$1,970
Gross ROI / mkt +517% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +375% what you keep after slip
Net edge+375%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate76%19W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day3166.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$101,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$3,086
world 27% −$1,742
weather 12% +$2,782
tech 0% −$16
finance 0% −$15
politics 0% −$13
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3166 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+458.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +517.0% +458.2% 76% 72% +223.5%
≤30d 25 +517.0% +458.2% 76% 72% +223.5%
≤90d 25 +517.0% +458.2% 76% 72% +223.5%
all 25 +517.0% +458.2% 76% 72% +223.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3166.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +458.2% 72% +223.5%
10% ← realistic here +404.8% 72% +192.5%
15% +356.0% 68% +164.2%
20% +311.3% 64% +138.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +278% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +517% · $-wt +278% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +893% → late +170% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$62 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.7 per $1 lost it wins $5.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101,518
Realized+$166,527
Unrealized+$1,970
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses19 / 6
Open positions329
Markets (closed)25 / 265
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day3166.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 329 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $54,626 $57,591 +$2,965 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 46¢ 56¢ $4,617 $5,636 +$1,018 (+22%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $5,763 $5,160 −$603 (-10%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $3,987 $4,185 +$198 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $2,505 $3,328 +$823 (+33%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 33¢ 32¢ $1,990 $1,940 −$50 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $1,473 $1,874 +$402 (+27%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 74¢ 100¢ $1,252 $1,696 +$443 (+35%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $1,614 $1,563 −$51 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 46¢ 34¢ $1,491 $1,130 −$361 (-24%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 76¢ 99¢ $385 $502 +$117 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $345 $421 +$76 (+22%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 73¢ $412 $416 +$4 (+1%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 81¢ $371 $363 −$8 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 13¢ 18¢ $262 $361 +$99 (+38%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $210 $311 +$101 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? No 82¢ 84¢ $288 $298 +$10 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 68¢ 63¢ $314 $291 −$23 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? No 64¢ 66¢ $258 $266 +$9 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 71¢ 100¢ $186 $263 +$77 (+42%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $236 $227 −$9 (-4%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 79¢ 100¢ $179 $227 +$48 (+27%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 87¢ 100¢ $187 $216 +$29 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $132 $206 +$74 (+56%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $198 $205 +$6 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 18 $57 −$26 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 18 $9 −$10 -109%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 18 $1 −$145 -17398%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? Jun 18 $1 −$142 -19476%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 30? Jun 18 $1 −$8 -1038%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Jun 18 $207 +$50 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$70 +674%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 +$46 +289%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $45 +$97 +217%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $73 +$523 +716%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 +$48 +355%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$172 +477%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$42 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$126 +737%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$26 +972%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $17 +$8 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 +$35 +425%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$45 +475%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $18 +$50 +280%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$72 +9031%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$104 +1579%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$169 +1916%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$428 +13475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $187 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $60 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $17 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $22 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $6 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $9 1m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 58¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 39¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $7 2m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 36¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 39¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 39¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 2m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $37 2m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 42¢ $3 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 42¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $8 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $18 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $9 3m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? BUY No 43¢ $9 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101,518.17 · official $101,545.99 (match) · 3500 history records