Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb410…56b7 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$329 (+9%) realized +$429 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%10W / 33L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day78.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$99
crypto 15% −$116
world 6% −$12
sports 4% −$13
weather 3% −$4
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -14.7% -22.8% 23% 16% -8.1%
≤30d 43 -14.7% -22.8% 23% 16% -8.1%
≤90d 43 -14.7% -22.8% 23% 16% -8.1%
all 43 -14.7% -22.8% 23% 16% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 16% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 9% -16.9%
15% -37.0% 5% -25.0%
20% -43.1% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$18 · ×3.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$429
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses10 / 33
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day78.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? No 96¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25? No 61¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? No 75¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25? No 77¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $268 −$265 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -9%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 23 $5 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 23 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 23 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 23 $70 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $310 −$73 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $103 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $425 +$345 +81%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $304 +$48 +16%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $90 −$28 -31%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 23 $200 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $201 +$49 +24%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 +$11 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $172 +$48 +28%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -64%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 −$19 -38%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 23 $159 −$38 -24%
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $46 −$30 -65%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $204 −$8 -4%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 22 $97 −$14 -15%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$12 -29%
Will there be no next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$1 -35%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $189 +$118 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 89¢ $9 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? SELL No 97¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 24? SELL No 96¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL No 49¢ $12 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $78 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 57¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL No 64¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 70¢ $5 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL No 43¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 81¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? SELL No 91¢ $10 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $16 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 62¢ $19 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL No 91¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 60¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 60¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY No 60¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY No 51¢ $3 5h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 64¢ $20 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 43¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.85 · official $128.85 (match) · 142 history records