Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb410…7955 crypto 540 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-3%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%404W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 494 +6.0% -4.1% 75% 62% -14.3%
≤90d 540 +5.6% -4.4% 75% 62% -15.0%
all 540 +5.6% -4.4% 75% 62% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 62% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 41% -23.1%
15% -21.9% 26% -30.6%
20% -29.6% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses404 / 136
Open positions0
Markets (closed)540 / 540
History coverage30d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 540 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$23 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$25 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$18 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$24 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$23 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$25 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1135 history records