Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:57:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb411…8a7c crypto 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized +$3 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate35%30W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$48
other 10% +$21
world 3% +$10
tech 2% −$10
politics 1% −$6
sports 1% −$1
economics 1% −$2
weather 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -4.2% -13.4% 35% 18% -14.2%
≤30d 85 -4.2% -13.4% 35% 18% -14.2%
≤90d 85 -4.2% -13.4% 35% 18% -14.2%
all 85 -4.2% -13.4% 35% 18% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 18% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 9% -22.4%
15% -29.2% 7% -29.9%
20% -36.2% 6% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses30 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions59
Markets (closed)85 / 144
History coverage5d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 30¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+371%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+293%)
Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%? Yes 33¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+267%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 14¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+142%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 43¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+83%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+55%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-33%)
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 17¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? No 29¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be below 1.0%? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be less than 200k? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1 +$7 +733%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +317%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1 +$1 +133%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$16 +516%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$24 +2286%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal t Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Biden" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "State" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -67%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 25m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 26m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? BUY Yes $1 26m
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO BUY Yes $1 55m
Will Trump hug anyone at UFC Freedom 250? BUY No $1 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $1 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $11 3h
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets in July 2026? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will White House post 20-39 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than 0.6T at market close on IPO d BUY Yes $1 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $1 10h
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by June 30? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? SELL Yes $0 20h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.24 · official $59.10 (match) · 253 history records