Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb413…adc3 crypto 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$352 (-3%) realized −$65 · open −$287
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%37W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$640
7 days+$600
14 days+$600
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1,783
other 13% +$76
sports 1% +$326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -8.3% -17.1% 35% 30% +27.6%
≤30d 32 -34.1% -40.4% 25% 22% -20.8%
≤90d 168 -11.6% -20.0% 22% 21% -17.6%
all 168 -11.6% -20.0% 22% 21% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 21% -17.6%
10% -27.7% 21% -25.5%
15% -34.7% 21% -32.7%
20% -41.1% 21% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$223 vs −$71 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$287
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses37 / 131
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)168 / 174
History coverage39d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Yes 65¢ 36¢ $132 $72 −$60 (-45%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 20¢ $100 $57 −$43 (-43%)
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals Yes 9¢ 2¢ $100 $28 −$72 (-72%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Yes 31¢ 9¢ $65 $19 −$46 (-71%)
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Yes 30¢ 6¢ $62 $13 −$49 (-78%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Yes 11¢ 2¢ $23 $5 −$18 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $102 +$142 +140%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $121 +$82 +67%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $59 +$148 +250%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $22 −$21 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $114 +$106 +93%
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$398 +388%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $133 +$326 +246%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 04 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 04 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 04 $424 −$400 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $133 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 04 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 16 $234 −$222 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $340 −$325 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 16 $176 −$169 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 16 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $52 +$90 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 16 $72 +$135 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 16 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 16 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $103 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $102 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 31¢ $66 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $24 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $63 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $133 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 41¢ $102 5h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $102 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $22 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $59 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $121 5h
Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $1 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $114 25h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $102 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.65 · official $194.65 (match) · 515 history records