Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

B4 0xb417…6d8f other 20 markets active 10h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,079 (-30%) realized −$1,079 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$179per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$134

7 days−$1,172

14 days−$1,172

30 days−$1,172

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-8.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+1.3%	-8.4%	45%	45%	-39.3%
≤30d	20	+1.3%	-8.4%	45%	45%	-39.3%
≤90d	20	+1.3%	-8.4%	45%	45%	-39.3%
all	20	+1.3%	-8.4%	45%	45%	-39.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.4%	45%	-39.3%
10%	-17.1%	45%	-45.1%
15%	-25.1%	45%	-50.4%
20%	-32.5%	45%	-55.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$134 vs −$216 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,079

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage18d

Avg bet$179

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$204	+$104	+51%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$544	−$526	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$206	+$153	+74%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$159	+$337	+213%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$31	+$24	+77%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists	Jun 15	$47	−$46	-97%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$31	−$30	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$541	−$541	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$52	−$52	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$51	+$74	+143%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals	Jun 15	$103	+$138	+134%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$595	−$595	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$344	+$191	+56%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals	Jun 14	$82	−$82	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$52	+$139	+268%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 13	$250	−$250	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$40	+$43	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$103	9h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$308	10h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	64¢	$204	11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$145	33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	66¢	$359	33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$206	33h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	25¢	$399	33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	40¢	$496	33h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$159	36h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	45¢	$55	36h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	31¢	$47	42h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	16¢	$31	42h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$31	42h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	40¢	$51	2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	14¢	$52	2d
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	42¢	$103	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	11¢	$90	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$451	2d
Arda Güler: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	57¢	$82	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$190	3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$494	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$344	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$102	4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$52	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$40	4d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	31¢	$250	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records