Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb418…7389 weather 243 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$309 (+1%) realized +$310 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%215W / 21L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$35
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 69% +$152
crypto 15% +$20
other 6% +$37
politics 5% −$4
world 3% +$18
economics 1% +$3
tech 1% +$4
finance 1% −$44
sports 0% +$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 6% -8.9%
≤30d 65 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 133 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 2% -9.0%
all 236 +0.1% -9.4% 91% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 1% -17.6%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.26 per $1 lost it wins $4.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage
Net worth$1,415
Realized+$310
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses215 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)236 / 243
History coverage600d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $498 $498 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $297 $297 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $207 $207 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $158 $157 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $100 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $186 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $764 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $259 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $335 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $92 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $218 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $190 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $197 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 10 Jun 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $81 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $194 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $110 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $250 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 2? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $209 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $1,371 +$4 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 30? May 31 $1,358 +$13 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on May 29? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $797 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 29? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $53 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $90 +$12 +13%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? May 28 $312 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on May 27? May 28 $471 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on May 27? May 28 $183 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on May 27? May 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 27? May 27 $294 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $18 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $207 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $297 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $108 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $499 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $9 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $65 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $98 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $199 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $198 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $140 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $193 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $173 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $399 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $186 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $259 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,414.85 · official $1,414.85 (match) · 884 history records