Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:25:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb419…891a crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,595 (+20%) realized +$3,613 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 38L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$125est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,294
7 days+$3,115
14 days+$3,115
30 days+$2,915
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$4,798
other 15% +$460
crypto 9% +$92
world 1% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +51.6% +37.2% 100% 100% +39.9%
≤30d 9 +18.7% +7.4% 78% 78% +35.1%
≤90d 85 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 51% +21.7%
all 85 -1.7% -11.1% 55% 51% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 51% +21.7%
10% -19.6% 47% +10.1%
15% -27.4% 39% -0.6%
20% -34.5% 31% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$38 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.66 per $1 lost it wins $4.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$2,467
Realized+$3,613
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage81d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $2,485 $2,467 −$18 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,861 +$1,448 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,257 +$601 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,013 +$246 +24%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $725 +$287 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $382 +$339 +89%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $273 +$114 +42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $193 +$80 +42%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $208 −$100 -48%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $197 −$195 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 27 $101 −$99 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Yibing Wu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 20 $20 +$19 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 19 $1,787 +$779 +44%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $1,456 +$331 +23%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 18 $12 +$3 +23%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $1,041 +$412 +40%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider Apr 17 $827 +$213 +26%
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin Apr 15 $200 +$143 +71%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $686 +$93 +14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $348 +$338 +97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $341 +$129 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 11 $17 −$17 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $255 +$87 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Apr 10 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $123 +$140 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$22 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 09 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $18 +$14 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 09 $22 +$12 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $9 +$6 +65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $101 +$124 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 01 $40 −$19 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 01 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 31 $20 −$6 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $4 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $2,504 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY 55¢ $1,861 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,257 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1,013 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $725 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $382 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $273 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $193 6d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 84¢ $107 16d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya SELL Anastasia Potapova 74¢ $106 17d
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anastasia Potapova 69¢ $101 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 19d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $197 42d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 44d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 44d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 35¢ $101 51d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Yibing Wu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Manoj Dhamne Manas 7¢ $10 58d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Yibing Wu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 7¢ $10 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $20 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 59d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova BUY Elena Rybakina 69¢ $1,787 60d
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1,456 61d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Elena Rybakina 81¢ $12 61d
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Alexander Zverev 71¢ $1,041 62d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Diana Shnaider BUY Elena Rybakina 79¢ $827 63d
Wuning 2: Jie Cui vs Mikhail Kukushkin BUY Mikhail Kukushkin 58¢ $200 64d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 88¢ $686 66d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $348 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,467.12 · official $2,467.12 (match) · 209 history records