Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb41c…5bd3 finance 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy finance specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,123 (+1%) realized +$2,123 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate49%246W / 252L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day48.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$87
14 days+$13
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4
finance 39% −$2,747
other 13% +$3,405
sports 1% −$186
crypto 1% −$46
politics 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -22.3% -29.7% 30% 14% -9.6%
≤30d 270 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 18% -9.5%
≤90d 498 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 18% -9.3%
all 498 -1.8% -11.2% 49% 18% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 18% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 11% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.4% 8% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$46 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,123
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses246 / 252
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)498 / 499
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$524
Trades / day48.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 498 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Jun 25 $422 −$36 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 26? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -77%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 25? Jun 25 $0 $0 -90%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -86%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? Jun 25 $873 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? Jun 25 $989 −$4 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 25? Jun 25 $779 −$3 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 25? Jun 25 $94 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 25? Jun 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 25 $119,065 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $68 on June 25? Jun 25 $18 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $12 +$8 +68%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $74 on June 24? Jun 24 $704 −$2 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 24 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$1 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 24? Jun 24 $106 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -20%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 24? Jun 24 $436 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 24? Jun 24 $732 +$11 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $20 +$14 +69%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -93%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on June 23? Jun 23 $24 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on June 24? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 23? Jun 23 $44 +$22 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $7 −$6 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -41%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 23 $124 −$20 -16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 23? Jun 23 $14 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 23? Jun 23 $770 −$2 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 23? Jun 23 $276 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -64%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 23? Jun 23 $63 $0 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 +14%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 23? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 23? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $71 on June 22? Jun 22 $40 −$1 -2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 22? Jun 22 $14 −$4 -30%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -97%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 22? Jun 22 $11 −$9 -83%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $70 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 48¢ $190 49m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 26? SELL No 2¢ $0 51m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? SELL Down 50¢ $196 57m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 51¢ $104 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 51¢ $104 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 52¢ $106 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 52¢ $106 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $65 on June 26? BUY No 8¢ $2 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 25? SELL No 0¢ $0 7h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $2 8h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? SELL Yes 95¢ $428 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $474 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? SELL Yes 89¢ $667 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? SELL No 6¢ $12 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 25? BUY No 6¢ $12 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $67 on June 25? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records