Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:19:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb41e…26f6 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-8%) realized −$33 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.9% -24.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤30d 6 -16.9% -24.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
≤90d 6 -16.9% -24.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
all 6 -16.9% -24.9% 33% 33% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 33% -18.1%
10% -32.0% 33% -25.9%
15% -38.6% 33% -33.1%
20% -44.6% 17% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$28 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs NAVI Junior 35¢ 34¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $45 −$45 -99%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $88 −$19 -22%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $122 −$4 -3%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $63 +$46 +73%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European BUY NAVI Junior 35¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 66¢ $45 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 63¢ $88 4d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar BUY Tommy Paul 51¢ $122 5d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY Washed 57¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs BUY Washed 57¢ $61 5d
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner BUY Wanted Goons 52¢ $43 6d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.86 · official $47.86 (match) · 12 history records