Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B4 0xb41e…11fd other 810 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (891 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$6,227 (+402%) realized +$5,333 · open +$894
Gross ROI / mkt +189% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +123% what you keep after slip
Net edge+123%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate89%238W / 29L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day890.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$3,430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$1,120
sports 13% +$228
politics 6% +$69
world 3% +$65
crypto 3% +$45
tech 2% +$34
culture 2% +$59
finance 1% +$6
weather 1% +$9
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (891 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+161.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 +189.4% +161.9% 89% 88% +101.3%
≤30d 267 +189.4% +161.9% 89% 88% +101.3%
≤90d 267 +189.4% +161.9% 89% 88% +101.3%
all 267 +189.4% +161.9% 89% 88% +101.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover890.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +161.9% 88% +101.3%
10% ← realistic here +136.8% 86% +82.0%
15% +113.9% 84% +64.5%
20% +92.9% 72% +48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +128% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +189% · $-wt +128% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +210% → late +169% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.86 per $1 lost it wins $23.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3,430
Realized+$5,333
Unrealized+$894
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses238 / 29
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions467
Markets (closed)267 / 810
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day890.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 467 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? Yes 20¢ $3 $52 +$48 (+1413%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes 46¢ $2 $45 +$43 (+2102%)
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 29¢ $5 $36 +$31 (+647%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June? Yes 17¢ $3 $34 +$31 (+1148%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 28¢ $3 $32 +$29 (+909%)
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 23¢ $4 $28 +$24 (+571%)
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new song in 2026? No 41¢ $2 $24 +$23 (+1366%)
Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 11¢ 36¢ $7 $24 +$16 (+228%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 44¢ 64¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+47%)
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? Yes 32¢ $3 $23 +$20 (+767%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Detroit Lions in 2026-27? Yes 36¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+1202%)
CA Nacional Potosí vs. CD Real Tomayapo: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ $4 $22 +$18 (+429%)
Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $6 $20 +$14 (+219%)
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 35¢ 55¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+55%)
Will the Republican Party win the MS-04 House seat? No 41¢ $4 $20 +$15 (+351%)
Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 10 Gwei before 2027? Yes 42¢ $3 $19 +$16 (+528%)
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? No 49¢ 66¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+33%)
Reya FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 35¢ $3 $17 +$14 (+454%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 42¢ $4 $17 +$13 (+366%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 35¢ 51¢ $11 $17 +$5 (+47%)
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? No 21¢ 48¢ $7 $17 +$10 (+133%)
Will Joey Bosa play for Tennessee Titans in 2026-27? Yes 34¢ $4 $17 +$12 (+288%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 42¢ $6 $17 +$10 (+159%)
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 20​26? Up 42¢ 90¢ $8 $16 +$9 (+114%)
New Half-Life game by June 30? No 59¢ 90¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kyrgyz Republic vs. Palestine: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$11 +262%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Khrystyna Vozniak vs Isabella Shinikova Jun 15 $9 +$5 +59%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $1 +$10 +900%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$10 +416%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +487%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +334%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 15 $1 $0 +50%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $22 +$42 +193%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 15 $0 $0 +50%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +208%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 15 $25 +$21 +85%
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 +62%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 +$14 +143%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +66%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +659%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +52%
Will Waymo operate in 10 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +60%
Will Spain be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Wo Jun 15 $0 $0 +67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 15 $0 $0 +53%
Ventuals FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO da Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$2 +23%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $0 $0 +51%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +164%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be at least 8% in May? Jun 15 $0 $0 +63%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 15 $0 $0 +51%
ITF Milano: Federico Iannaccone vs Petr Nesterov Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? Jun 15 $0 $0 +54%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Laurent Lokoli Jun 15 $0 +$1 +131%
Will LOS qualify to the EWC Jun 15 $0 $0 +136%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +87%
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? Jun 15 $0 +$7 +13702%
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +188%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1822%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $0 4m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $0 5m
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $10 7m
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? SELL No $1 7m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $0 12m
StandX FDV above $10B one day after launch? BUY Yes $1 13m
Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes 33¢ $10 16m
Will Benoît Saint Denis be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31 BUY Yes $0 16m
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $8 16m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra SELL Yes $0 17m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $1 18m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $1 18m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $0 19m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $0 19m
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra BUY Yes $1 22m
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? SELL Yes $3 23m
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes $1 23m
Ostium FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes $0 24m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY Yes $1 28m
Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY Yes $0 28m
Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House BUY Yes $0 29m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No $0 39m
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No $0 39m
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? BUY Yes $0 41m
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul) BUY Yes $0 41m
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes $1 41m
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes $0 42m
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? BUY Yes $0 43m
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? SELL Yes $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,430.11 · official $4,724.63 · 3500 history records