Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb421…696c sports 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$263 (+17%) realized +$255 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days+$283
14 days+$280
30 days+$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$223
other 25% −$1
crypto 8% +$51
world 2% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +15.1% +4.2% 62% 62% +14.3%
≤30d 34 +5.7% -4.4% 59% 59% +13.3%
≤90d 34 +5.7% -4.4% 59% 59% +13.3%
all 43 +5.8% -4.3% 56% 53% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 53% +6.9%
10% -13.4% 51% -3.3%
15% -21.8% 42% -12.7%
20% -29.4% 28% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage225d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $43 $53 +$10 (+23%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $44 −$2 -6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$23 +54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $70 +$31 +45%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $69 +$44 +64%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $32 −$7 -21%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $72 +$46 +64%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $43 +$29 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $45 −$2 -4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $32 −$32 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 +$6 +24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $24 +$9 +39%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $22 +$11 +47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$4 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $43 −$43 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $8 +$3 +39%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$7 +138%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $67 +$20 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 +$44 +64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$5 +45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $52 +$89 +171%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$57 +96%
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $62 +$53 +85%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 +$9 +43%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $55 −$31 -56%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $20 $0 -2%
Will Slovakia vs. Northern Ireland end in a draw? Nov 14 $15 $0 -3%
Will Andorra win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $10 +$22 +223%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $10 +$5 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $44 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $44 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $46 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $71 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $69 10h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 65¢ $69 10h
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $70 12h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $72 12h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $25 17h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $72 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $43 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $43 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $43 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $45 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $31 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $32 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $24 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $24 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $43 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $11 4d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $22 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $33 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $34 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $70 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $5 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.21 · official $155.21 (match) · 87 history records