Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B4 0xb422…08ac other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,222 (+11%) realized +$1,827 · open −$605
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate66%19W / 10L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$442
7 days+$442
14 days+$442
30 days+$1,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 56% +$239
crypto 23% +$491
sports 8% +$566
world 8% +$63
other 5% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +837.2% +747.9% 100% 100% +747.9%
≤30d 8 +74.2% +57.6% 50% 50% +20.1%
≤90d 22 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 50% +11.9%
all 29 +11.8% +1.2% 66% 52% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 52% +9.2%
10% -8.5% 28% -1.3%
15% -17.3% 21% -10.8%
20% -25.4% 10% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$34 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.36 per $1 lost it wins $6.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1,625
Realized+$1,827
Unrealized−$605
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses19 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)29 / 37
History coverage121d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 88¢ 85¢ $1,036 $991 −$45 (-4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? No 57¢ 19¢ $794 $266 −$528 (-67%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $51 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $53 +$443 +837%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $254 +$310 +122%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $31 −$28 -89%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $1,280 +$173 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $1,588 +$231 +15%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 13 $100 +$31 +31%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 29 $511 +$190 +37%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 19 $593 +$215 +36%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 07 $93 −$40 -44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 02 $500 +$56 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 02 $400 +$55 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 27 $500 +$8 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in March? Mar 23 $467 +$176 +38%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 20 $200 +$39 +20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 17 $400 +$13 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 10 $500 +$93 +18%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $50 +$45 +90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 06 $148 +$17 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 06 $901 +$39 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 9-15? Feb 16 $200 +$52 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $101 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $101 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $101 19h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 39¢ $51 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $101 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $100 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 54¢ $102 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $51 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 62¢ $51 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $51 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $100 8d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $51 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $51 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 69¢ $51 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $100 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 68¢ $51 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $50 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $51 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 61¢ $51 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $100 14d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 14d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 14d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $46 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $67 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 15d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,625.28 · official $1,620.60 (match) · 223 history records