Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb422…fc5d world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%14W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 25% +$4
politics 6% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% −$2
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.6% -8.1% 44% 11% -8.4%
≤30d 13 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 6% -9.5%
all 35 -2.2% -11.5% 40% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 6% -9.4%
10% -20.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -27.7% 3% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage470d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 21 $16 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $64 +$2 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $39 −$3 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $39 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 22 $12 −$1 -9%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will Albania be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $9 +$4 +51%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 25 $6 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Cade Cunningham win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 24 $7 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 24 $8 −$1 -10%
Will the Giants draft Abdul Carter? Apr 21 $7 −$1 -22%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $43 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $23 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $5 13h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $32 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $13 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $21 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $33 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $6 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $38 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $38 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.24 · official $43.24 (match) · 100 history records