Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B4 0xb425…0bd2 other 120 markets active 5h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,288 (+1%) realized +$1,291 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate15%18W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,363per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$31
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$104
other 44% −$26
economics 4% −$8
sports 3% +$1,375
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$8
world 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +6.1% -4.0% 11% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 100 +7.8% -2.5% 16% 11% -8.7%
all 117 +7.8% -2.5% 15% 11% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 11% -8.8%
10% -11.8% 11% -17.6%
15% -20.3% 11% -25.5%
20% -28.1% 11% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,641) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$4 · ×21.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses18 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,363
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $293 $292 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $232 $233 +$0 (+0%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 42¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $2,286 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $738 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,862 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $569 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $827 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,698 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $4,297 −$7 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $3,648 −$5 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,056 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,527 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,637 −$4 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,421 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,347 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $3,152 −$5 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,592 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $76 +$126 +165%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,991 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $46 +$73 +158%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $673 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $412 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $794 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $4,354 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $5,335 −$8 -0%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $74 +$42 +57%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $71 −$71 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $43 +$71 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 20 $5 +$7 +129%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $293 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $714 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $715 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $894 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $895 3d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $737 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $738 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $543 5d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $544 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $859 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $861 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $677 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $677 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $568 6d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $569 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $825 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $827 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $508 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $509 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,237 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,239 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,001 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,351 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 12d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 12d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,226 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $570.34 · official $570.34 (match) · 383 history records