trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? | Jun 06 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? | Jun 05 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | Jun 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? | Jun 02 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 2? | Jun 02 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -96% |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | May 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | May 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 31? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | May 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 30 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -54.2% | -58.5% | 0% | 0% | -58.5% |
| ≤30d | 23 | -96.0% | -96.4% | 0% | 0% | -97.8% |
| ≤90d | 23 | -96.0% | -96.4% | 0% | 0% | -97.8% |
| all | 23 | -96.0% | -96.4% | 0% | 0% | -97.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -96.4% | 0% | -97.8% |
| 10% | -96.7% | 0% | -98.0% |
| 15% | -97.1% | 0% | -98.2% |
| 20% | -97.3% | 0% | -98.4% |