Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb427…4c62 weather 519 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$543 (-1%) realized −$1,641 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate65%328W / 174L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day128.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$864
7 days−$1,490
14 days−$990
30 days−$1,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 91% −$1,109
finance 9% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -22.4% -29.8% 61% 15% -15.5%
≤30d 502 -14.0% -22.2% 65% 34% -12.9%
≤90d 502 -14.0% -22.2% 65% 34% -12.9%
all 502 -14.0% -22.2% 65% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 34% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 19% -21.2%
15% -36.5% 10% -28.8%
20% -42.7% 6% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$38 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$6,608
Realized−$1,641
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses328 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions57
Markets (closed)502 / 519
History coverage25d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day128.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $517 $564 +$47 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $527 $545 +$18 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $529 $535 +$5 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? No 94¢ 94¢ $295 $294 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $279 $286 +$8 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $261 $275 +$13 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? No 87¢ 100¢ $238 $273 +$36 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 14? No 93¢ 100¢ $242 $262 +$19 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $235 $240 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? No 95¢ 97¢ $234 $239 +$5 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $165 $173 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? No 94¢ 90¢ $155 $148 −$6 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 15? No 98¢ 100¢ $139 $142 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? No 96¢ 97¢ $137 $138 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? No 96¢ 99¢ $129 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? No 93¢ 95¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? No 85¢ 79¢ $135 $126 −$9 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $122 $124 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? No 98¢ 99¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $127 $119 −$8 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? No 89¢ 92¢ $109 $113 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $101 $102 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? No 97¢ 97¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $86 $85 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 157 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 16? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 17? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 15? Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 17? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 21? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 18? Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17? Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on May 18? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on May 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 18? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 16? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 17? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C or higher on May 14? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 21? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 18? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 16? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 15? Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 16? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 18? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 18? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 15 $138 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $121 +$13 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $194 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $160 +$193 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $254 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $235 +$31 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $263 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $176 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $61 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 15m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $56 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $47 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $25 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $56 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $33 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 87¢ $24 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,608.46 · official $6,607.78 (match) · 3500 history records