Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb428…688b crypto 579 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 90d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,876 (+41%) realized +$4,072 · open −$196
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate60%340W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 90d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,173
crypto 45% −$244
sports 8% −$337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% +17.2%
≤30d 13 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 46% +12.7%
≤90d 564 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 33% -0.6%
all 571 -0.5% -10.0% 60% 33% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 33% -1.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 30% -10.5%
15% -26.5% 30% -19.2%
20% -33.7% 28% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$8 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized+$4,072
Unrealized−$196
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses340 / 231
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions8
Markets (closed)571 / 579
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $325 $224 −$101 (-31%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $13 −$87 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $305 +$53 +18%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$71 -69%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $506 +$356 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $548 +$471 +86%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $387 −$297 -77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $52 +$103 +197%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 −$91 -88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$99 +10%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $51 +$71 +139%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 21 $17 −$11 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 21 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 10 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 1h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $39 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $32 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 26h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $90 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $387 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $548 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $52 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $12 4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $113 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $28 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,102 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $319 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.82 · official $528.82 (match) · 3500 history records