Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb429…8e28 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$15 (+6%) realized +$10 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$16
other 21% −$12
tech 19% +$35
politics 10% −$17
crypto 8% +$2
sports 3% −$5
weather 2% −$6
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -58.7% -62.6% 29% 14% -58.0%
≤30d 16 -12.8% -21.1% 31% 25% +9.7%
≤90d 28 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 32% -3.9%
all 28 -3.4% -12.6% 39% 32% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 32% -3.9%
10% -21.0% 18% -13.1%
15% -28.6% 18% -21.5%
20% -35.6% 18% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)28 / 42
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 74¢ 90¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-10%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? No 42¢ 34¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 76¢ 96¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 43¢ 95¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+121%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 31¢ 8¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-73%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 43¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+132%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 48¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$8 (-85%)
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? Yes 15¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -78%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +58%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$2 -50%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 04 $5 −$1 -21%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 May 25 $5 −$4 -70%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $7 −$6 -87%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 20 $10 +$62 +600%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $14 +$2 +18%
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? May 13 $5 $0 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 13 $10 −$5 -50%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $15 −$1 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $2 +$6 +304%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 25 $4 +$1 +16%
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 25 $3 $0 +11%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 18 $12 −$10 -83%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 11PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$2 +118%
XRP Up or Down on April 10? Apr 14 $5 +$4 +89%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 8? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL No 36¢ $6 7d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $4 10d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 14¢ $4 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $5 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $10 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $5 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 18d
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 SELL Yes 1¢ $2 20d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 30¢ $5 21d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 17¢ $5 21d
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 21d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 21d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 21d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 21d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Rico 1¢ $1 22d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 7¢ $7 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.14 · official $78.14 (match) · 100 history records