Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb42a…13a5 crypto 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$235 (-3%) realized −$234 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate73%134W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$282
other 14% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 5 -56.0% -60.2% 40% 0% -34.6%
≤90d 129 -1.8% -11.2% 67% 39% -13.3%
all 184 -3.0% -12.3% 73% 31% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 31% -13.0%
10% -20.7% 21% -21.3%
15% -28.3% 15% -28.9%
20% -35.4% 9% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses134 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage117d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 100¢ 99¢ $155 $154 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 26 $150 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$51 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 05 $52 −$43 -84%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 05 $106 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 26 $70 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 26 $21 +$30 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 26 $51 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 21 $51 −$24 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 19 $73 −$70 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $10 +$4 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 19 $10 +$5 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 19 $52 +$28 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $21 +$16 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 19 $21 +$4 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 18 $41 +$15 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 12 $52 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 12 $11 +$18 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 12 $58 −$55 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 12 $30 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 12 $10 +$8 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 12 $51 −$21 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 12 $10 +$6 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 11 $52 −$33 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 11 $21 +$16 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 11 $51 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 11 $21 −$20 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 10 $16 +$18 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 10 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 07 $21 −$12 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 07 $11 −$3 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 07 $21 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $78 21d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $72 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $8 21d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 21d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $106 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $46 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $15 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $9 31d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 31d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $70 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $28 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 36d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $0 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $5 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 37d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $21 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.14 · official $154.14 (match) · 611 history records