Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B4 0xb42a…a9ae world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-8%) realized −$20 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$8
other 36% −$32
politics 12% +$12
finance 10% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.5% +42.5% 100% 100% +42.5%
≤30d 2 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 50% -26.7%
≤90d 7 -10.8% -19.3% 57% 57% -9.7%
all 32 -4.3% -13.4% 41% 38% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 38% -15.5%
10% -21.7% 38% -23.6%
15% -29.3% 25% -31.0%
20% -36.2% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage154d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $11 $4 −$8 (-67%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $24 −$24 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 28 $10 +$10 +100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $8 +$3 +37%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $2 $0 -23%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $2 −$1 -28%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 09 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $7 −$3 -49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 08 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 -18%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $14 +$8 +55%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 03 $9 +$5 +64%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $10 −$7 -68%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $15 −$10 -65%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February? Jan 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of January? Jan 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of January? Jan 28 $3 +$14 +464%
Ukraine hits Moscow by January 31? Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 31? Jan 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January? Jan 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Jan 24 $10 −$4 -38%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $10 +$1 +9%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jan 24 $2 +$1 +63%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 24 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 23 $17 −$3 -17%
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum? Jan 22 $35 +$8 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $40 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 23d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 62¢ $15 23d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 24d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 62¢ $10 24d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 61d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 61d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 61d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 61d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $10 62d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 75d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY No 43¢ $3 105d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 105d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $21 105d
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 105d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? SELL No 48¢ $5 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 106d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 108d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 108d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? SELL Yes 81¢ $11 108d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 109d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 109d
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.65 · official $36.65 (match) · 71 history records