Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B4 0xb42c…c83f sports 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$564 (-3%) realized −$259 · open −$305
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%60W / 44L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$15
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$898
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.1% -37.6% 40% 20% -10.0%
≤30d 39 -5.2% -14.3% 59% 36% -10.3%
≤90d 104 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 31% -12.1%
all 104 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 31% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 31% -12.1%
10% -17.8% 16% -20.5%
15% -25.8% 13% -28.2%
20% -33.1% 10% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$54 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$1,000
Realized−$259
Unrealized−$305
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses60 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage74d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 50¢ 80¢ $500 $805 +$305 (+61%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 50¢ 20¢ $500 $195 −$305 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 23 $1,000 +$51 +5%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $1,000 $0 +0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $45 +$18 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 +$7 +92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $10 −$8 -77%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $12 +$3 +23%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $10 −$7 -66%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $84 +$2 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $13 +$2 +16%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $12 +$1 +10%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $10 −$4 -39%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $10 +$6 +58%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $60 +$6 +10%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $10 −$5 -48%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $50 +$11 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $51 +$19 +37%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$7 -70%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$5 -53%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $10 +$5 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $10 +$2 +20%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $10 +$4 +43%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $10 −$6 -59%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $10 −$4 -42%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 +$3 +31%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $13 −$4 -27%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 28 $11 +$6 +52%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $12 −$8 -62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $15 +$1 +10%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $5 +$5 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 27 $200 +$11 +5%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $180 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $100 −$74 -74%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $210 +$5 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $190 +$15 +8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $200 +$2 +1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $210 −$6 -3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 23 $420 −$20 -5%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $400 $0 +0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $400 +$27 +7%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 21 $320 +$9 +3%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 21 $401 +$26 +7%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $51 +$74 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 17 $320 −$4 -1%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 16 $320 +$14 +4%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $320 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 84¢ $50 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 87¢ $433 2h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins SELL Minnesota Twins 24¢ $117 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 65¢ $30 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 71¢ $45 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 82¢ $8 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $2 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 79¢ $6 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 7d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 67¢ $5 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $2 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 12¢ $2 10d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 57¢ $10 10d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $10 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $10 10d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Chicago Cubs 21¢ $3 12d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 86¢ $74 12d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 17¢ $3 12d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 15¢ $2 13d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Chicago Cubs 60¢ $10 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $10 13d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $10 13d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 13d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 38¢ $6 14d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 49¢ $5 15d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 62¢ $10 15d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 91¢ $60 15d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $10 15d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $10 15d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 32¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,000.00 · official $1,000.00 (match) · 326 history records