Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb42e…5f10 world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$21
world 35% −$6
other 17% $0
sports 10% +$12
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 57 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 62 -0.4% -9.8% 35% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -10.1%
10% -18.5% 2% -18.7%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.6%
20% -33.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 40
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage491d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $34 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $34 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $70 −$5 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $76 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $115 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $77 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $35 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $3 $0 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $121 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $98 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 06 $2 $0 -10%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $38 $0 -0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $62 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $33 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $33 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $34 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $34 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 35¢ $28 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 41¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $7 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $8 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 97¢ $36 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $34 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $31 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $37 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $15 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.53 · official $37.54 (match) · 238 history records