Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb436…2206 politics 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%15W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$23
politics 40% −$24
sports 7% +$51
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 149 +2.4% -7.3% 10% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 4% -9.5%
10% -16.2% 4% -18.2%
15% -24.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses15 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage120d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd Jun 11 $43 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $326 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $242 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $225 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $275 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $1,335 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $274 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $276 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $298 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 12 $329 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $282 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $309 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $264 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $295 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $305 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $261 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $924 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $305 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $308 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $562 −$1 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $333 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 27 $313 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $345 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $309 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $32 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 8h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 8h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 14h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 21h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 23h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 29h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 40h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 7d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd SELL No 100¢ $43 10d
Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingd BUY No 100¢ $43 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 14d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 16d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $330 24d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $330 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $276 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $276 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $294 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $294 27d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $242 28d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 28d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $225 29d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 31d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $275 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 452 history records