Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb438…24a2 weather 318 markets active 2h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$164 (-3%) realized −$127 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%49W / 248L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$600
14 days+$174
30 days+$174
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$660
sports 32% −$184
tech 8% −$408
weather 8% +$81
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% −$22
politics 1% −$15
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +47.7% +33.6% 38% 38% +33.6%
≤30d 54 +13.8% +2.9% 26% 26% -2.7%
≤90d 277 +6.0% -4.1% 17% 17% -24.4%
all 297 +4.9% -5.1% 16% 16% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 16% -11.0%
10% -14.2% 15% -19.5%
15% -22.5% 15% -27.3%
20% -30.1% 15% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$11 · ×5.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses49 / 248
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions7
Markets (closed)297 / 318
History coverage591d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+56%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $6 −$3 (-31%)
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Haiti 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 14¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$57 +175%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 +$34 +83%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $2 +$57 +2851%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 17 $3 +$3 +108%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 +$13 +27%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 −$21 -28%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $115 +$50 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $62 +$74 +118%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$366 +714%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $63 −$5 -9%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $151 −$87 -58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 +$28 +63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $209 +$296 +142%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $121 −$105 -87%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 −$94 -96%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $74 −$9 -12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $76 −$4 -5%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $109 −$9 -8%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 12 $96 −$8 -9%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $67 −$7 -11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$8 +456%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 −$2 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on May 24? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 4? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on May 30? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 30? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $3 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $0 1h
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) BUY Haiti 1¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 14¢ $29 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $59 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $31 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 80¢ $35 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 18¢ $59 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $41 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $10 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 6¢ $8 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 4¢ $10 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Uzbekistan vs. Co BUY 7¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 12¢ $21 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 4¢ $26 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 9¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.46 · official $96.46 (match) · 1337 history records