Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb43b…f637 other 298 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$191 (+1%) realized +$369 · open −$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%195W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days−$211
14 days+$118
30 days+$476
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$212
sports 34% −$339
crypto 3% −$100
world 3% +$36
weather 1% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +6.3% -3.8% 89% 28% -13.0%
≤30d 79 +5.1% -4.9% 90% 30% -7.1%
≤90d 237 -8.4% -17.2% 65% 36% -10.1%
all 297 +3.2% -6.7% 66% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 41% -9.3%
10% -15.6% 28% -18.0%
15% -23.7% 18% -25.9%
20% -31.2% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$37 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized+$369
Unrealized−$178
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses195 / 102
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)297 / 298
History coverage122d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 92¢ 38¢ $300 $122 −$178 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$52 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $400 +$9 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $300 +$4 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $400 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $436 +$26 +6%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $401 +$24 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $402 −$400 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $400 +$2 +0%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $400 +$8 +2%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $295 +$9 +3%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $401 −$109 -27%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $402 +$63 +16%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $200 +$13 +6%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $400 +$12 +3%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $301 +$24 +8%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $168 +$7 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $459 +$67 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $234 +$54 +23%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $229 +$27 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $160 +$10 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $269 +$19 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $476 +$46 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $389 +$31 +8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $120 +$13 +11%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $132 +$32 +24%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $193 +$4 +2%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $120 +$11 +10%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $118 +$10 +8%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $168 +$7 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $270 +$43 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $321 −$56 -18%
Will Guatemala vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 05 $31 −$23 -76%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $169 −$79 -47%
Brose Bamberg vs. Alba Berlin Jun 04 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $169 +$26 +16%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $169 +$20 +12%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $360 +$4 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $200 +$6 +3%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $229 +$24 +11%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $169 +$19 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $201 +$31 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $100 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $301 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $304 17h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 98¢ $300 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $201 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $400 21h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 97¢ $200 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $436 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $425 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $402 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $319 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $301 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire SELL Las Vegas Aces 100¢ $402 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire BUY Las Vegas Aces 99¢ $400 5d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 98¢ $400 5d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Barbora Krejcikova 97¢ $295 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 70¢ $292 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $401 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 86¢ $402 7d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 94¢ $200 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 7d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 97¢ $400 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.28 · official $138.59 · 943 history records