Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:28:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B4 0xb43e…a37c crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%41W / 12L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$2
other 24% −$1
tech 14% +$1
politics 9% $0
economics 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 77% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses41 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage545d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? Dec 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? Nov 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July? Aug 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 02 $19 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 01 $5 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? May 01 $13 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will Quinn Hughes win the Hart Trophy? Apr 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Green Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadian Apr 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025? Mar 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Mar 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 18 $34 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 31d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $52 62d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 93d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 98¢ $13 122d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $53 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 149d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 150d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $25 183d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $32 183d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 211d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in November? BUY No 100¢ $40 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $22 242d
Will Solana dip to $150 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 243d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $9 272d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $18 272d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe BUY Yes 100¢ $38 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $23 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $38 302d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in July? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $16 333d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.14 in July? BUY No 100¢ $43 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $10 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 98¢ $19 367d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.30 · official $57.30 (match) · 113 history records