Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B4 0xb43e…8200 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$741 (-25%) realized −$773 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$751
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -28.0% -34.9% 29% 29% -39.2%
≤30d 24 -28.0% -34.9% 29% 29% -39.2%
≤90d 24 -28.0% -34.9% 29% 29% -39.2%
all 24 -28.0% -34.9% 29% 29% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 29% -39.2%
10% -41.1% 29% -45.0%
15% -46.8% 29% -50.4%
20% -52.0% 29% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$101 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized−$773
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles 35¢ 48¢ $103 $140 +$37 (+36%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 29¢ 28¢ $94 $93 −$2 (-2%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 40¢ 40¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Toronto Tempo 55¢ 52¢ $84 $81 −$4 (-5%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 35¢ 36¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 40¢ 40¢ $66 $66 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 18 $90 −$89 -99%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 18 $56 +$84 +149%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 17 $102 −$102 -99%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $107 +$132 +124%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $143 −$141 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 16 $89 −$87 -98%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $126 −$124 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $110 −$108 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $98 −$96 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $112 +$118 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $118 +$172 +146%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $126 −$124 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $119 −$117 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $183 −$183 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $109 +$189 +172%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $21 −$21 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $42 +$82 +197%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $120 +$161 +134%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 13 $177 −$175 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $7 31m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $93 35m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $3 37m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $75 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 40¢ $67 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 29¢ $96 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $75 2h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $1 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $2 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $2 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $1 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $1 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $7 13h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $35 14h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $5 14h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $35 14h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $11 15h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles BUY Hanwha Eagles 35¢ $4 15h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $18 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $72 23h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 40¢ $38 38h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 40¢ $6 38h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 40¢ $12 39h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $69 45h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $2 45h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $1 45h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $1 45h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 39¢ $92 46h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $30 46h
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions BUY Kiwoom Heroes 30¢ $33 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.94 · official $546.45 (match) · 62 history records