Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B4 0xb43f…5778 sports 245 markets active 5h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$119 (-4%) realized −$121 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%109W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$49
14 days−$64
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$63
other 15% −$100
crypto 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -6.2% -15.1% 46% 46% -11.9%
≤30d 225 -9.8% -18.4% 44% 42% -15.1%
≤90d 240 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 43% -13.0%
all 240 -8.4% -17.1% 45% 43% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 43% -13.0%
10% -25.0% 38% -21.4%
15% -32.3% 33% -29.0%
20% -38.9% 27% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses109 / 131
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)240 / 245
History coverage52d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 55¢ 56¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 51¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $5 −$2 -44%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$14 -88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $38 −$16 -43%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$8 -51%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$6 -68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$15 +38%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$7 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$5 -35%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $27 −$23 -83%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +131%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$17 +414%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$15 +108%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $15 +$12 +80%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$4 -82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $16 +$5 +31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $28 −$23 -82%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $56 −$2 -4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$7 -82%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $5 −$4 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $5 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $5 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $5 8h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $5 9h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 9h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 26¢ $3 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $5 10h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 45¢ $5 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 13h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $5 15h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 40¢ $10 15h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $5 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 39h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 40h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 40h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $3 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.80 · official $39.80 (match) · 592 history records